African Studies
Utafiti: Journal of African Perspectives
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The August elections defined political dynamics, which were marked by a hardening of the political and social climate. Hotly contested, the elections returned the ruling party and President João Lourenço to power with a narrower-than-ever majority, indicating growing dissatisfaction with and distrust in political institutions and their ability to represent the population’s interests. Foreign affairs largely followed the courant normal, and were dominated by economic rather than political considerations. Post-pandemic, the economy nominally recovered. This was largely due to rebounding oil prices, as oil income still dominated government revenues, yet costs of living remained high and living conditions for a majority of people were dire.
Domestic politics was characterised by intra-party and inter-party feuding, and by the ruction between President Mokgweetsi Masisi and former president Ian Khama, with the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (diss) at the centre of their dispute, giving rise to criticisms that the diss was ‘operating above the law’ and encroaching ‘with impunity’ on the roles of other institutions such as the Botswana Police Service, the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime (dcec), the Directorate of Public Prosecutions (dpp), and the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board (ppadb). Corruption, malfeasance, and money laundering, as well as concerns over the independence and integrity of the judiciary, intensified despite President Masisi’s anti-corruption posture and declaration of adherence to the rule of law. The country preserved its foreign policy, characterised by unprecedented out-bound visits. Covid-19 eased, and the economy showed signs of positive economic recovery, yet socioeconomic barriers remained significant.
Eswatini’s political unrest, which began in July 2021, intensified as pro-democracy activists called for political transformation in the country. Cases of excessive force by the state, together with arrests of activists, dominated the political landscape. The unrest led to the damage to infrastructure that impacted negatively on the economic sectors of the country. Eswatini remained a lower-middle-income country, in which 69% of the rural population lived below the national poverty line. Eswatini has a very high rate of hiv prevalence, affecting 26% of the population between the ages of 15 and 49. However, statistics released in 2022 indicated significant progress in the reduction of new hiv infections in the last decade.
Lesotho’s tenth general election, held on 7 October 2022, swept away the incumbent government of Prime Minister Moeketsi Majoro, replacing it with a three-party coalition headed by the newly formed Revolution for Prosperity Party (rfp). Led by Ntsokoane Samuel Matekane, who is described as a ‘millionaire’ and the country’s richest person, the rfp had been launched in March 2022, Matekane claiming that he was entering politics to end corruption, tackle economic recession, and ‘Make Lesotho Great Again’. The election, which had been prefaced by bitter in-fighting within the All Basotho Convention (abc), saw the defeat of many established politicians, and was heralded by optimists as inaugurating a shift away from Lesotho’s faction-ridden politics towards a new era of stability and development.
Madagascar’s economic growth in the wake of Covid-19 impacts continued to be strong in 2022, erasing the sharp losses of 2020. However, inflation was high at 11.2% as agricultural production and manufacturing continued to be blamed. Disproportionate increases in rice and petrol prices contributed to the worsening of social conditions in a country already suffering as one of the poorest in the world. The drought in the southern part of the country continued throughout the year, with 1.95 m people facing ipc (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) Phase 3, Crisis, or higher-level food insecurity as a result. Multilateral and bilateral donors continued to recognise the urgency and the need to increase both humanitarian relief and long-term portfolio investments. While questions were raised about the slow implementation of President Andry Rajoelina’s socioeconomic velirano (commitments), and his significant steps to consolidate power, the international community continued to see a certain amount of stability in his administration. By year’s end, opposition leaders had already begun positioning themselves for the 2023 presidential elections, but this appeared to expose their weaknesses more than their strengths.
President Lazarus Chakwera and his Tonse Alliance administration continued to face heavy criticisms from various quarters of society and the donor community for, among other things, failing to tame corruption, inability to manage and administer the Affordable Input Programme (aip) on time, and practising selective justice. The aip was marred by many challenges, such as a reduction in number of beneficiaries, the inability of beneficiaries to access the fertilisers and seeds, and corruption. Consequently, most Malawians were expected to face hunger in the following year as the majority of poor Malawian farmers depend entirely on the programme. Intra- and inter-party conflicts characterised the year, which also witnessed the arrest of the vice-president, Saulos Chilima, by the Anti-Corruption Bureau (acb) over his alleged involvement in the Sattar scandal. Malawi continued to enjoy good relations with other countries and international agencies, and received financial and material support. The year also saw the devaluation of the national currency, the Malawian kwacha (mk), by 25%. Consequently, commodity prices increased amid declining revenues from tobacco. There was an acute shortage of foreign exchange currency, which forced some firms to suspend manufacturing and packaging activities and left the government struggling to pay for fuel imports, leading in turn to an acute shortage of fuel for two consecutive months.
As Covid-19 eased, there was a call across all sectors for a return to normality. One of the sectors most severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic – tourism – saw an extraordinary rebound, with the island recording 997,000 tourists in 2022, bringing it to its pre-pandemic numbers. However, the political and democratic landscape continued to regress with the adoption of a number of repressive measures, the rise of impunity and corrupt practices, and a general deterioration in governance practices.
The civil war in Cabo Delgado province and the consequent continued suspension of work on onshore installations for a major gas field dominated the year, although the first lng was shipped from a far-offshore floating platform. Eleven people were convicted in the $ 2 bn hidden debt scandal, including the son of former president Armando Guebuza. Illegal activities including drugs transit trade, illegal exporting of timber, and kidnapping of businesspeople continued unabated. Mozambique was elected to the unsc. President Filipe Nyusi began to press for a third term, although it is barred by the constitution.
The main issue in domestic policy during the year was the party congress of the former liberation movement and governing South West Africa People’s Organisation (swapo), which indicated likely leadership choices for the country’s next national parliamentary and presidential elections. A critical matter of domestic and international dimensions remained the disagreement over the German–Namibian Joint Declaration on the colonial genocide. The government’s voting behaviour in the UN signalled the ‘Go East’ trend and refusal to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Socioeconomic recovery from the recession remained slow. New mining and exploration activities, including the discovery of offshore oil and gas and rare earth metals, and the prospect of large-scale production of green hydrogen nourished hopes of becoming the continent’s energy hub.
The year under review can be at best characterised as one in which South Africa’s democracy faced its most crucial test regarding its future trajectory. It was constrained by a deepening decline in the social contract between state and society, underpinned by a growing trust deficit in the country’s institutional governance architecture and an almost irreconcilable anxiety that South Africa had reached an existential tipping point in its democratic history.