African Studies
Utafiti: Journal of African Perspectives
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After two years in power, President Évariste Ndayishimiye reshuffled the government, sacking powerful prime minister Alain Guillaume Bunyoni, along with several ministers and other state officials. In the global arena, Ndayishimiye intensified his engagement with regional and international bilateral partners and multinational bodies, leading to a further improvement of Burundi’s foreign relations and global standing, after several years of isolation following the 2015 political crisis. Diplomatically and economically, the country profited from the lifting of the EU’s economic sanctions and its resumption of direct financial assistance to the government. Despite these benefits, and grants from other bilateral partners and multilateral organisations, Burundi faced major economic difficulties. Spillover effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, combined with domestic factors, led to high inflation, severe fuel shortages, and steeply rising food prices, putting further strain on Burundi’s chronically poor population. The human rights situation remained worrisome and civil space limited, though small improvements could be observed.
Following decades of institutional instability since 1975, the Union of the Comoros remained politically stable under the leadership of President Azali Assoumani. The restructuring of ministerial portfolios in the first half of the year helped to consolidate the incumbent’s position prior to the 2024 presidential elections. The National Inter-Comorian Dialogue launched by the government did not create a broad-based political consensus, as major opposition forces refused to participate. Relations with France continued to be cordial but were increasingly tense over the island of Mayotte and growing illegal migration. Comoros voted in favour of the UN resolution to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and cemented relations with China and Saudi Arabia. As a highly import-dependent economy with limited exports, Comoros was directly affected by global disruptions due to the Russia–Ukraine war. Inflation reached record high levels, while economic growth showed positive signs.
President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh continued to preside over Djibouti’s authoritarian system and the political situation remained stable, with the exception of an assault by the armed group frud (Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy) on a military base in October. Relations with the country’s most important investor, China, remained strong, and a variety of international military bases pointed to the strategical importance of the country’s location. The economy recovered from the Covid-19-induced crisis, but endemic poverty and unemployment prevailed. Currency reserves dwindled over the year due to problems related to the conflict in Ethiopia, the war in Ukraine, and regional drought, which slowed down economic growth and forced the government to suspend loan repayments in December. The country remained committed to expanding its renewable energy sector and to developing a commercial space port.
Positive developments regarding the resolution of the devastating conflict in Ethiopia were overshadowed by novel tensions and pockets of insecurity across the region. The Pretoria Peace Agreement in November ended the two-year war in Ethiopia. Despite all hopes, the situation remained fragile and major issues went unresolved. The year concluded with Sudan facing an uncertain future, while the South Sudanese peace process showed small signs of progress. In the Great Lakes region, the situation remained equally fragile, and tensions escalated due to increased activities of the M23 rebels in eastern Congo. Nevertheless, regional integration again showed promising steps. drc became a member of the eac, increasing the total population of the regional bloc by more than 90 m. Elections in Somalia and Kenya were a key test for the two countries enmeshed in intra-elite competition; they were ultimately peaceful and provided for a smooth transition of power. Economic growth across the region remained moderate, as novel disruptions to global supply chains adversely affected import-dependent economies. Inflation soared to a record high, averaging 25%, due to both external and internal factors. Among these factors were extreme drought conditions and unpredictable weather patterns with detrimental impact on agricultural output, exacerbating the humanitarian situation. Migration and the consequences of climate change continued to be significant concerns, along with growing risks associated with mounting debt. Eastern Africa has made notable progress in strengthening its health emergency preparedness. This increased readiness is expected to better equip the region to respond to recent outbreaks of diseases like cholera and Ebola. Enhancing financial stability and mitigating sovereign debt remain pivotal elements to achieving sustainable development and will continue to influence growth prospects in Eastern Africa in 2023. Looking ahead, certain factors are beyond direct control, such as the impacts of climate change and the high costs of borrowing. Additionally, external factors such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its medium-term impact on supply chains, as well as global price dynamics, are likely to have ripple effects. Nonetheless, political stability in the emerging economic powerhouses of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania is expected to bolster investor confidence, providing a positive economic outlook for the region.
Three decades after its independence from Ethiopia, the State of Eritrea remained an autocracy with no implemented constitution under the firm rule of President Isaias Afewerki, the head of the sole political party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (pfdj). Eritrean troops were deployed in the armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region throughout the year despite a peace agreement signed in November. In September, the government announced a general mobilisation and called people from as young as 14 to at least 55 years of age to join the army. Draft dodgers were heavily punished, and their family members arrested to force them to abide. Accordingly, the human rights situation deteriorated, and the rule of law remained absent. Eritrea’s economy remained in poor condition and diaspora remittances played a vital role for the population’s survival. Eritrea remained under targeted sanctions imposed by the US and EU due to its military engagement in Tigray, while the country’s mining sector had come under the control of Chinese companies.
After two years of war in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions, the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities agreement (CoHA) in Pretoria on 2 November between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (tplf) marked an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, however, government forces intensified efforts to drive the Oromo Liberation Army (ola) from its strongholds in western Oromia and bordering regions. The international community called for unfettered humanitarian access to conflict areas as a condition for debt restructuring and a normalisation of diplomatic relations. A mid-year crackdown on Fano militias in Amhara Region by government forces foreshadowed a shift in domestic political alliances, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (pp) risked losing its Amhara nationalist and pan-Ethiopianist support base. Conflicts in the north (Tigray, Amhara, and Afar) and west (western Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz), as well as drought in the south-east of the country (Somali Region, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region, southern Oromia), resulted in rising food insecurity and an idp and refugee crisis. This was compounded by food and fuel inflation and currency depreciation, as Ethiopia sought to reduce its foreign exchange deficit and debts. Agricultural outputs were affected by conflict and drought, while a national wheat cluster farming programme could not end reliance on wheat imports. The extractive mineral sector continued to gain in importance, with gold the most exported commodity, on par with coffee despite a close to 60% decline in gold exports over the year. Pledging to liberalise the economy, as part of its Home-Grown Economic Reform agenda, the pp announced the privatisation of all sugar factories and industrial parks. A year after obtaining its licence as Ethiopia’s first private mobile service, Safaricom began to roll out services as of October – at a time when parts of western Oromia and Tigray were still under a government-imposed communication blackout.
The general elections dominated Kenyan politics in 2022. Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidential term ended after a ten-year tenure defined by increased investment in large public infrastructure, increased military spending, and runaway public debt. The elections were tense and vigorously contested but peaceful. Unlike previous elections largely dominated by ethnic politics, class-based politics began to emerge – although ethnicity still dominated voting patterns. Twenty-nine women were elected to Kenya’s parliament, an increase from 27 in the 2017 elections. Seven female governors were elected, compared with three in 2017. William Ruto, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential flagbearer and former vice-president, was declared president after the disputed presidential election was decided by a supreme court ruling.
The year was defined by significant turns in Rwandan foreign policy. While relations with drc and President Tshisekedi deteriorated dramatically, relations with Uganda were restored. Rwanda was accused of actively supporting the M23 in the drc, which led to political and also minor military clashes. As in the previous year, Rwanda was actively involved in Mozambique and car through the deployment of its armed forces. Internationally, migration deals concluded with the UK and Denmark drew attention. Domestically, the situation for the opposition and the media remained tense and the political environment difficult. President Paul Kagame seemed to benefit from the internal struggles of the only legal opposition party and declared his readiness to compete in the 2024 presidential elections. The general conditions for civil society did not change in comparison with previous years. The economy largely recovered from the coronavirus restrictions, with the restarting of the tourism sector a key factor. Rwanda slipped into inflation as a result of the Russian war against Ukraine. Food prices in particular rose dramatically, affecting broad segments of the population.
The political environment in Seychelles remained stable, while strong governance indicators continued to allow for multilateral creditor support. Tourism, the country’s major economic sector, recovered visibly following the pandemic-induced contraction of visitors and growth. Seychelles recorded gdp growth of 8.8%, up from 7.9% in the previous year, and growing foreign currency inflow positively affected macroeconomic indicators. A surprising and alarming development occurred regarding press freedom. Seychelles, previously the top-ranked country in ssa on the World Press Freedom Index, relinquished its position, dropping by 21 places. The government of President Wavel Ramkalawan continued its foreign policy efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The war against drugs remained equally high on the agenda.
The long-awaited election finally happened this year, and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud became president of the Somali federal government. Before and after the elections were characterised by political crises: political disagreements divided the top politicians, and in the administrative regions, armed confrontations with the insurgent movement al-Shabaab intensified, which also led to a deterioration in the social climate. Foreign relations were impacted by the electoral tensions, but they remained stable overall. With the backdrop of higher food and cooking fuel prices globally, fighting in the region, and worsening environmental conditions, a large part of the country faced slower economic growth and a severe humanitarian crisis.