Utafiti: Journal of African Perspectives

 

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This journal promotes critical and worldly debates with Africa at the centre. 

New Series: Africa Futures / Afrique Futurs

Published in association with the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Africa Futures features cutting-edge research that critically reflects on some of the big questions relevant to imagining Africa’s future as a place.

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Robin Attfield talks about how Africa finds itself vulnerable to drought but also the flooding of its coastline, among other untoward environmental effects of climate change and civil war.

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As in previous years, politics remained focussed on president Patrice Talon’s activities. The president continued to push for economic reforms but postponed his ambitious plan to amend the constitution. Revisions of the political parties law and the electoral law caused public outcry and concerned domestic and international commentators about the country’s highly valued democratic standards. Underneath, the country further diversified its international ties, for example by favouring China in crucial infrastructure projects. The cotton industry continued to flourish, and the general economic outlook gave reason to be optimistic about the country’s development despite the heated political disputes.

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For the third year in a row, insecurity in Burkina Faso worsened due to attacks by armed jihadi groups and growing criminal activity, particularly in the northern and eastern regions. A terrorist attack simultaneously targeted the French embassy and the headquarters of the national military in downtown Ouagadougou leaving 16 dead and dozens wounded. However, the most significant disruption to Burkinabe daily life came from small-scale attacks targeting schools, security authorities, and other public officials, as well as civilians in the Sahel and East regions, where, by the end of the year, thousands of people had been displaced from their homes. In response, the government placed 14 of 45 provinces under a state of emergency and aggressively implemented a transnational strategy for combatting terrorism and weakening organised criminal networks in the region that significantly shaped the country’s foreign affairs. Despite this instability, strong economic growth continued throughout the year, largely due to strong performance in the gold sector. Still, the government faced several strikes throughout the year related to economic grievances among workers.

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The Status of Forces Agreement (sofa) with the United States and a law on the creation of administrative regions were controversial issues both inside and outside the National Assembly. Both were eventually adopted thanks to the support of the parliamentary majority enjoyed by the ruling ‘Movimento para a Democracia’ (MpD). The ailing state-owned tacv Cabo Verde Airlines struggled with serious financial, organisational, and logistical problems. However, at the end of the year, Loftleidir-Icelandic submitted a proposal to acquire a majority share in the airline. Tourism continued to grow both in terms of new investment and the number of tourists.

Côte d’Ivoire continued its overall economic post-conflict recovery, weathering the more recent storms of widespread military mutinies, public sector strikes, and the previous year’s dramatic drop in world market cocoa prices. While government responses to these recent crises generally proved effective, the year soon posed its own challenges as the ruling political coalition came undone in the increasingly dramatic run-up to the 2020 presidential elections. During a turbulent political year, president Alassane Ouattara dissolved and then reinstated the government, lost the support of his main ally, former president Henri Konan Bédié, and sowed further doubts regarding his intentions to run for a third term in 2020. Despite these dramatic developments, which also included parliamentary and public mobilisation against the composition of the Independent Electoral Commission, however, political mobilisation was generally peaceful, and grievances were addressed through the appropriate state institutions. Some concerns remained about the legal procedures in the aftermath of the 2010–11 post-electoral crisis, which had led to renewed armed conflict and the imprisonment of former president Laurent Gbagbo. Mr Gbagbo’s trial at the icc was still ongoing at year’s end, but anticipation among his most loyal supporters, as well as among his most ardent adversaries, added another dimension to the growing tensions within the Ivorian political class.

Throughout the year, the political and security situation in the Gambia remained relatively peaceful, despite a growing political rift within the coalition government of president Adama Barrow, and a few isolated fatal skirmishes between civilians and security forces. With the coming of Barrow’s administration, the country witnessed many new bilateral relationships and the re-establishment of old ties. After 22 years of financial mismanagement and international isolation under the leadership of the now exiled former president Yahya Jammeh, the economic challenges of the country remained a key concern. Although the country realised some economic improvement, it remained saddled with a huge wage bill and debt burden.

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Now in the second year of its four-year term, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo’s New Patriotic Party (npp) government needed to make good on a lot of campaign promises made in 2016. From building a factory in every district and getting tough on corruption, to providing support for farmers, offering free secondary education, and creating jobs, the npp claimed it had been hampered in its first year in power by a high gdp-to-debt ratio and by the poorly negotiated contracts it had inherited. Proponents and critics disagreed about whether progress on these items had been made. Economic growth was strong, although not as strong as in the previous year, and overall numbers were helped by a rebasing of the economy in October.

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Guinea celebrated 60 years of independence during the year, which was marred by trade union strikes to demand liveable wages and economic stability, as well as political protests against the sitting government’s increasingly authoritarian character. President Condé used police and soldiers to disperse protests and limited independent media reporting and freedom of expression, returning to methods his predecessors had been known for. The long-awaited local elections resulted in allegations of fraud, as well as in increased ethnic and communal tensions that delayed the instalment of local councils. Although the gross economic situation improved due to a growing mining sector based on foreign investment in bauxite extraction, the population did not benefit by way of increased employment or salaries to match rising inflation.

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More than two years of a protracted political crisis between state president José Mario Vaz and the ‘Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde’ (paigc) ended in April with the appointment of Aristides Gomes (paigc) as consensual prime minister. The solution was made possible by sanctions that ecowas had imposed on unruly Vaz and his entourage. Gomes became head of a unity government, integrating into the cabinet ministers of all parties with parliamentary representation. The government’s principal task was to organise fresh parliamentary elections. Scheduled for November, they had to be postponed until early the following year, given technical and financial shortcomings in the voter registration process. President Vaz played for time again, trying to discredit the credibility of the voter registration process and to delay the fixing of a new election date. Meanwhile, macroeconomic and fiscal development was positive, although, as in previous years, the country was hit by several waves of strikes. Human rights continued to come under pressure.

The inauguration of newly elected president George Weah in January was a historic event, marking the first peaceful transfer of power for decades. Weah vowed to help the poor and fight corruption. Nevertheless, his first year in power was marked by one of the biggest corruption scandals in Liberia, when L$ 15.5 bn cash (around $ 104 m) went missing from the Central Bank of Liberia (cbl) in September. Though it was later claimed to have been found, the matter had not been cleared up by year’s end. The unmil peacebuilding mission left the country, transitioning to a un country office. The new government was unable to engage as well with international donors as under the leadership of Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf. Inflation increased dramatically, reaching an all-time high of 26.6% in October, and averaged at 21.3%. The budget for the financial year 2018/19 was slightly higher than the previous one, at $ 570.1 m. Economic growth was the same as in 2017, at 2.5% of gdp, slightly below predictions.

A growing number of fatal clashes between local militia groups combined with jihadi terror campaigns to make 2018 Mali’s deadliest year since a complex security crisis began in 2012. Violence increased, mainly in the country’s central and northern regions. Implementation of the peace accord between the central government and Tuareg separatist rebels continued to lag. The incumbent head of state was re-elected in August. Malian leaders strengthened relations with diverse partners abroad, while at home, commodity production rose and the economy continued its recent trend of moderate expansion.