African Studies
Utafiti: Journal of African Perspectives
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Developments in Burundi during the year confirmed the trend that had set in during the previous year. Navigating both domestic and external pressures related to the aftermath of the 2015 crisis, the ruling ‘Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie-Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie’ (cndd-fdd) managed to further consolidate its domination and control over the domestic political field. President Pierre Nkurunziza and his party offensively started preparing the field of play for the 2020 elections, and the party displayed its capacity to mobilise and contain dissent in the run-up to the year’s most important event, the constitutional referendum in May. Other political parties and actors also started manoeuvring in view of approaching elections but were forced to adapt to the rules set out by the government and the cndd-fdd. While in general, Burundi remained relatively stable, several violent incidents continued to occur, and there were frequent reports of human rights abuses and political intimidation by ruling party activists. These reports remained a source of tension in Bujumbura’s relations with the un and major international partners, and whereas the domestic political situation was under control, the economy and international relations were fields that remained fraught with challenges and tensions.
The year was politically significant for Comoros. The replacement of a single-term electoral system by a two-term system was confirmed by a controversial and disputed referendum. The revised constitution potentially allows president Azali Assoumani to stand in two further presidential elections, rather than step down in 2021. The revision to the constitution was fiercely contested by the opposition, especially on the islands of Mwali and Nzwani, where there was a short, limited uprising against the government. Assoumani was accused of adopting authoritarian measures to neutralise rivals during the referendum campaign and ahead of a presidential election in early 2019. The year also saw a major diplomatic row with France when the long-standing dispute over the sovereignty of Mayotte escalated into the most serious rift between the two countries for many years.
The political situation in Djibouti remained unchanged, and president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh’s ‘Union pour la Majorité Presidentielle’ (ump) coalition won 57 of 65 seats in the parliamentary elections of 23 February, while the scramble for his succession continued within his extended family. Ethiopian prime minister (pm) Abiy Ahmed’s regional peace initiative, which ended the stalemate between Eritrea and Ethiopia, caught Djibouti by surprise and evoked scepticism because it endangered Djibouti’s privilege of being the only sea outlet for Ethiopia. However, President Guelleh agreed to solve his border dispute with Eritrea amicably after Ethiopian intervention. China expanded its role as a major foreign investor by gaining control over the Doraleh Multipurpose Port and by securing the rights to construct a 700 km gas pipeline connecting Ethiopia and Djibouti. In May, a cyclone displaced tens of thousands of people in Djibouti City. In spite of continuous economic growth, poverty and unemployment remained endemic, especially in rural areas.
Unforeseen political developments during the year put Eastern Africa in the global spotlight, and observers viewed with much enthusiasm the positive reforms and regional diplomacy coming from Ethiopia. However, large parts of the sub-region remained politically fragile, experiencing violent conflict and growing public unrest. Long-term rulers and dominant parties faced increasing challenges from novel opposition movements and their electorates, and the year ended with an unpredictable future for Sudan. Despite the highest average economic growth on the continent, poverty was widespread and (youth) unemployment grew. Unsustainable levels of debt in some countries, such as Djibouti and Kenya, increased fiscal vulnerability, and rising spending for mainly large-scale infrastructure projects, combined with weak revenue collection, were a cause for concern. Overall, the sub-region witnessed worrying restrictions on the freedom of the press and a poor human rights record, areas in which few improvements were recorded. Migration and climate change mitigation received renewed attention from the donor community. Donor relations with most countries of the sub-region in the areas of poverty reduction and the promotion of peace and security remained largely unchanged.
Eritrea’s political system was not reformed in spite of major changes in its foreign relations, and the country remained an autocracy led by President Isaias Afewerki and a small number of political advisers. In a surprising move, Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, declared in June his readiness to accept an international border verdict and to end the conflict with Eritrea. In July, a peace-and-friendship agreement was signed in Asmara, followed by a similar agreement in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in September. Border crossings also opened in September, and Eritreans were free to leave their country for the first time in two decades. However, the open-ended national service programme was not reformed, and thousands left the country to join their relatives in the diaspora once the border was opened. Ethiopian traders sold consumer goods in the country, which led to an improvement in the supply of basic consumer goods; however, local traders were disadvantaged because their access to cash was severely limited by the government. The human rights situation, as well as the economic situation, did not improve, and no reforms were envisaged. eu funds granted under the eleventh edf remained virtually untouched. In the absence of a road map regulating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and without border demarcation, many Eritreans feared for the sovereignty of their country.
Ethiopia went through one of its most momentous years in recent decades. The ruling party effectively split and named a surprise new prime minister in April, after intense meetings meant to address a national crisis of ongoing mass protests and civil disobedience, as well as economic problems. The political climate notably opened up due to the liberalisation policies of the new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed – a member of the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organisation (opdo), one of the four constituent parties of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (eprdf) – and waves of hope engulfed the nation.
The secondary effects of the contentious 2017 general election in Kenya spilled over into the next year as the opposition escalated confrontations with the government only to abruptly call for a ceasefire under the auspices of a handshake between the principals on both sides of the political divide. In the aftermath, the ‘Building Bridges’ initiative was launched as a peacemaking campaign that only served to heighten the entropy within the political system as deputies who had fought passionate rhetorical and physical battles during the election year suddenly had to make sense of the new political dispensation. These peacemaking efforts did little to address the economic uncertainty that followed both the election and the calamitous drought, as both taxes and consumer prices spiralled, and individual spending contracted. Public debt also ballooned as the unfeasibility of the recently commissioned single-gauge railway (sgr) connecting Nairobi to the coastal city of Mombasa finally became evident. At the same time, Kenya’s regional diplomatic efforts were tested through the unexpected political transition in Ethiopia and the continuing crisis in South Sudan.
Although the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (rpf) consolidated its power during the year, two opposition parties managed to win seats in parliament for the first time since it had taken power in 1994. The year also saw the release of 2,140 prisoners, among them prominent political opponents, but despite this, Rwanda’s human rights record remained poor. Rwanda expanded its political power on the international scene and continued its efforts to become less dependent on Western donors. The country’s relations with its neighbours Burundi, the drc, and Uganda remained strained, with the entry of two new rebel movements, the National Liberation Forces (nlf) and Platform 5 (P5), aiming to topple the regime of President Kagame, adding to existing tensions. Rwanda’s economic achievements remained impressive, with plans to increase agricultural productivity and access to electricity, and to create on-farm and off-farm jobs for youth, being implemented.
The Republic of Seychelles, an archipelago of 115 islands in the western Indian Ocean, is classified as a high-income country, with three-quarters of its 95,000 citizens living on the main island of Mahé. Domestic politics were dominated by an uneasy relationship between the dominant opposition coalition and the executive this year. The judiciary experienced turmoil following a court case against the chief justice, Mathilda Twomey, although she was eventually cleared of all wrongdoing. Civil society and government expressed concern about human right violations against foreign workers in the fishing, agriculture, and construction sectors. The Seychelles government continued to emphasise climate change, the ‘Blue Economy’, and poverty reduction in its foreign policy interactions, as in previous years. In addition, sustainable economic growth, jobs, and climate change remained key national agenda items. fdi increased significantly and surpassed expectations, reaching $ 158.5 m ($ 124.5 m in 2017). The country continued to struggle with drug abuse and its consequences.
Somalia continued to struggle to be a country and remained marred in conflict and internal division. The northern self-declared state of Somaliland retained stability and steady economic growth despite drought and other problems. The south-central part remained highly insecure and saw diverse regional political units asserting their autonomy, with the Somali Federal Government (sfg) in Mogadishu nominally keeping the fledgling federal institutions and national army together. There was some improvement in building governance structures. sfg president Mohamed Abdullahi remained in position and retained the hesitant confidence of the international (donor) community. But the territorial-institutional expansion of the sfg was slow, and large areas remained under the control of the Islamist terror movement ‘Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahiddeen’, which continued its violent course as usual, offering no new political ideas or compromise solutions. Hundreds of people again fell victim to its lethal violence. The au mission to Somalia (amisom) and various special forces assisted the sfg in subduing the movement, but despite successful strikes against its leadership and bases, they could not dislodge it. The economy was a mixture of laissez-faire private enterprise and government activities, demonstrating an unregulated and vibrant dynamism but propped up by remittances, donor support, military assistance, and peacekeeping efforts by amisom. Business conditions were extremely challenging, marred by high insecurity and pervasive corruption.