African Studies
Utafiti: Journal of African Perspectives
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In 2004, Cameroon maintained a remarkable degree of political stability, in spite of its stark ethnic and regional cleavages. One of the most significant events was the re-election of the incumbent Paul Biya as president. This will most probably result in the continuation of the national and international policies pursued since his assumption of office in 1982. A major setback for Cameroon's socioeconomic development was the government's failure to successfully implement the three-year poverty-reduction and growth programme prescribed by the Bretton Woods institutions and Western donors.
The sub-region continued to undergo various crises, given the spill over from the Darfur conflict into neighbouring Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) and the ongoing conflicts in eastern DR Congo and Burundi. Violent attempts to topple the regimes in Chad and Equatorial Guinea failed before they really unfolded. The simultaneous double-digit growth in the same two CEMAC countries was the most positive news. However, achieving the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 remained beyond the reach of all the countries in the sub-region. Once again, a particular concern in the region was the protection of the environment, more especially the forests of the Congo Basin. No particular progress was recorded in the area of democratisation.
Insecurity in large parts of the country and its containment was the main feature of domestic and foreign affairs and of socioeconomic developments. In its face, management of the transition after the coup of 2003 proved particularly difficult. A constitutional referendum and preparations for elections necessitated massive outside support.
During 2004, political stability of Chad was undermined by the Darfur crisis in neighbouring Sudan, and continued uncertainty about the revenues from oil exploitation. Both issues were said to lie at the origin of an attempted coup d'état in May. Rumours about the poor health of President Idriss Déby fuelled concerns about political stability. An amendment to the constitution that cleared the way for President Déby to stand for re-election after his second term was accepted in parliament. Foreign support for the current regime, mainly from France and the US, was still strong, since Déby seemed to be the only guarantee of political stability, the opposition being in disarray. The exploitation of oil is said to have increased GDP by more than 30%. Despite oil revenues, Chad still ranked as one of the poorest countries in the world, with 80% of the population living on less than $ 1 a day. The rainy season finished early and harvests were far below (30%) the levels of last year. Furthermore, the transhumance of livestock keepers to the south started as early as September instead of December, increasing tensions between nomadic herders and farmers. The damage done by locust plagues was relatively modest. However, there are indications that Chad is heading for a food crisis in 2005.
The various political factions represented in the power-sharing government, inaugurated in June 2003, preserved an uneasy coexistence. The prospect of holding elections in June 2005, scheduled to end the transition period, appeared increasingly remote by year's end. None of the political challenges facing the country was even close to being met, including the disarmament and reintegration of combatants, the creation of a new integrated national army and the drawing up of legislation essential to an orderly wrapping-up of the transition. The transition from war to peace in the country tottered on the verge of collapse throughout the year due to renewed clashes in the country's Kivu provinces, the massacre of Banyamulenge refugees in Burundi, the (temporary) withdrawal of Vice-President Ruberwa from the transitional government, the continued presence of Rwandan Hutu rebels in Eastern Congo and the repeated threats of a new military intervention by Rwanda.
The fall-out from the alleged mercenary plot uncovered in March dominated the political and diplomatic scene, and even overshadowed the parliamentary elections and a cabinet reshuffle. The ongoing border dispute with Gabon was at the centre of regional foreign policies. Relations with the United States were strained due to a report by the US senate that brought details of grand corruption and of the appropriation of oil wealth by the tiny ruling elite into the open for public scrutiny. Meanwhile, the economy continued to benefit from rising oil production and high international oil prices, but without having much positive impact on the impoverished majority of the population.
Omar Bongo ‘Ondimba’ (b. 1935) was Africa's second-longest serving head of state, and after 37 years in power showed no interest in stepping down. His family members held key government posts and his ruling ‘Parti Démocratique Gabonais’ (PDG) held 72% of the seats in the National Assembly. With unusually high oil prices supporting his economy, he spent the year preparing for upcoming presidential elections.
The 1997 armed conflicts that resulted in the fall of Pascal Lissouba continued to serve as the landmark around which the Republic of Congo (RoC) regime organised itself formally and ideologically. The end of the five-year transition period, proclaimed in August 2002, led to the establishment of new institutions, with Denis Sassou Nguesso as head of state. Yet in many respects, 2004 in the Congo was still largely dominated by the political and economic structures that had resulted from a series of armed conflicts.
This small country was again affected by political crisis and corruption scandals. A national forum to reconcile the various political groups in the interests of the country's development did not end the political instability. The emerging oil sector dominated economic development and attracted increasing international attention. Delays in the awarding of the first oil blocks, submitted to a bidding round in 2003, postponed the expected payment of signature bonuses to 2005.