African Studies
Utafiti: Journal of African Perspectives
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Having consolidated his majority in parliament over the last two years, President Mwanawasa was mainly concerned with three issues: first, consolidating his power base within his own party, the Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) in preparation for the next general elections in 2006; second, winning back credibility for his anti-corruption politics; and third, implementing austerity policies in order to regain the trust of international donors for further credits and for participating in the HIPC initiative.
President Michael Sata’s cabinet faced important challenges throughout the year. Domestic politics saw six rounds of by-elections, which, apart from incurring significant financial costs, tipped the balance of power in favour of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF). At the end of the year, the PF held 51% of the seats in the National Assembly (10 more than in 2011), the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) held 27% (down 14 from 2011), and the United Party for National Development (UPND) held 20%. There were multiple changes in ministerial posts, with only six ministers remaining unchanged since 2011. The promised new constitution was postponed again. The fight against corruption intensified. The policy towards Chinese investment continued to be crucial. The economy performed well despite the rebasing of the kwacha. GDP and wages rose, but social unrest still escalated. Some donors pulled out of the country.
Zambia celebrated its golden jubilee on 24 October. Incumbent President Michael Sata, who did not attend the celebrations, died shortly afterwards after a period of failing health. Infighting escalated in the ruling Patriotic Front (pf) over leadership issues. Secretary General Edgar Lungu was chosen as the pf candidate for the 2015 presidential election at a highly contested and petitioned General Conference. The pf was the major winner in the parliamentary by-elections. The government released the long due draft constitution. There were landmark steps on freedom of speech and ngo registration. Economic diplomacy set the tone of the ‘new foreign policy’. China continued to be the most important trading partner. Economic growth remained above 6%. Maize production reached record levels. The kwacha dropped to its lowest level ever, and copper prices fell to their lowest since 2009. Fuel prices were reduced twice following a global drop in oil prices. Public debt increased.
Edgar Lungu of the ruling Patriotic Front (pf) won the presidential by-elections by one of the narrowest margins ever against the runner-up, Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (upnd). The elections were deemed free and fair, but levels of turnout reached a record low. Inonge Wina became the first female vice president and the pf was the major winner in the parliamentary by-elections. Parliament passed the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Bill, which changed the formula for winning presidential elections from a simple majority to 50% plus one. Eduard Lungu set himself an intensive travel programme to further and deepen bilateral relations with neighbouring countries in Southern Africa and with China. China remained a key investor, with important agreements reached in the technology, communications and transport sectors. Against falling copper prices, Zambia’s currency continued to be devalued, the economy slowed down and unemployment increased in the mining sector. A new mining tax regime was approved. The electricity deficit rose dramatically, generating a severe power crisis, and electricity tariffs increased. The cost of living rose and only two out of the eight mdgs were attained.
Zambia adopted a new constitution. General elections were held. Incumbent president Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (pf) polled over the 50% needed for re-election but the results were challenged by the runner-up Hakainde Hichilema, candidate of the United Party for National Development (upnd). Post-electoral violence escalated in upnd strongholds. The pf secured a majority of parliamentary seats for the first time, while the first direct elections for mayors/council chairpersons revealed a clear balance between the pf and the upnd. The referendum on a new Bill of Rights failed. Lungu’s international trips intensified with the strategic goals of attracting foreign investors and strengthening bilateral relations with key partners in Africa and the Middle East. Conditions for economic growth remained tough. The electricity supply deficit continued to affect households, mining activities and other business. The currency improved and copper prices increased.
Zambia became increasingly authoritarian under Patriotic Front (pf) President Edgar Lungu, who had been elected in a tightly contested presidential election in 2016. The runner-up, the United Party for National Development (upnd), engaged in a series of actions to challenge the validity of the results. The upnd saw 48 of its legislators suspended for boycotting Lungu’s state of the nation address and its leader, Hakainde Hichilema, was arrested on charges of treason after his motorcade allegedly blocked Lungu’s convoy. Independent media and civil society organisations were under pressure. A state of emergency was declared after several arson attacks. Lungu announced his intention to run in the 2021 elections and warned judges that blocking this would plunge the country into chaos. The economy performed better, underpinned by global economic recovery and higher demand for copper, the country’s key export. Stronger performance in the agricultural and mining sectors and higher electricity generation also contributed to the recovery. The Zambian kwacha stabilised against the dollar and inflation stood within the target. The cost of living increased. The country’s high risk of debt distress led the imf to put off a $ 1.3 bn loan deal. China continued to play a pivotal role in Zambia’s economic development trajectory. New bilateral cooperation agreements were signed with Southern African countries.
Edgar Lungu’s presidency faced significant political and economic challenges in a year that marked the fifty-fourth anniversary of Zambia’s independence. Several critics of the regime faced legal action, repression, and intimidation. There were repeated attacks on media freedom. The opposition filed an impeachment motion against Lungu, but a legal challenge prevented it being tabled until the end of the year. The Constitutional Court ruled that Lungu was eligible to run in 2021. Lungu became chairperson of the sadc’s Organ on Politics, Defence, and Security Cooperation. Important bilateral agreements were established. China continued to be a strategic trade and investment partner. Chinese investments triggered protests and fuelled interparty conflict over the lack of transparency in the government’s dealings. The government increased the minimum wages for various categories of workers. Despite growth in the economy, major challenges remained.
This year saw a continuation of the trend of democratic erosion in the country. The Patriotic Front (pf) government, headed by President Edgar Lungu, used selected laws and regulations to demobilise critical voices and institutions. The Constitution Amendment Bill aroused fierce contestation, with several sections of civil society claiming that it undermined basic democratic principles and urging the government to withdraw it. A series of by-elections triggered violence between the pf and the major opposition party, the United Party for National Development (upnd). Incumbent and opposition parties faced increased intra-party polarisation. China played a key role in financing the country’s largest infrastructure projects despite mounting resentment against the country. New accords were signed with Russia, India, and Japan. Zambia opened a consulate in Dubai. The economy grew by only 2% due to the severe droughts which impacted electricity generation, agriculture production, mining outputs, and other sectors of activity. The imf paid visits to the country and warned about the need for reduced external borrowing and sustained fiscal adjustment in order to improve macroeconomic performance.
The Patriotic Front (pf) government, headed by President Edgar Lungu, faced a critical year, having to tackle the political and economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. The calendar for the 2021 elections was readjusted so as to meet the constitutional mark of 12 August. Voter registration reached 83% of eligible voters. While voter registration excluded citizens in the diaspora, it extended the right to vote to detainees for the first time. Lungu’s eligibility to run for the elections was a controversial issue. The Constitution of Zambia Amendment Bill No. 10 of 2019 failed to pass the second reading in parliament. A series of by-elections were held, resulting in further consolidation of the pf’s power. Freedom of expression and assembly and political opposition activities were restricted. Zambia strengthened bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia, Japan, Malawi, and the UK. China remained one of the country’s major trade partners and an investor in infrastructural projects. With the Covid-19 shock, the economy contracted by 4–5%, accelerating the debt crisis. Zambia became Africa’s first country to default on its debt, in this case Eurobonds worth $ 42.5 m. The imf held virtual meetings with the country and warned of the need to reduce external borrowing and sustain fiscal adjustment in order to improve macroeconomic performance.
On 12 August, Zambia held its seventh general elections since the introduction of multi-party politics in 1991. Hakainde Hichilema and his United Party for National Development (upnd) won the presidential and parliamentary elections, handing a resounding defeat to the incumbent president, Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (pf). Ahead of the polls, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ecz) implemented a new voter registration system that raised credibility concerns. Local and international observers reported that the campaign period was marked by some political clashes between the two major parties and an unlevel playing field in favour of the ruling pf. The voting day was generally peaceful and well administrated. Lungu conceded defeat, giving way to Hakainde Hichilema, who built his support on the need to restructure the debt, improve the economy, fight corruption, and restore democracy. Switzerland, China, Singapore, drc, and South Africa were the country’s major commodity export destinations. Zambia strengthened bilateral talks with sadc member states. The new president sought to raise the profile of the country internationally. The imf had virtual meetings with the country to keep track of the reforms made to improve macroeconomic performance. Hichilema’s government reached an agreement with the imf on an ecf arrangement. The economy improved slightly. Inflation and the cost of living followed a downward trend throughout the year. Mining outputs diminished, while cereal production, particularly maize, increased.