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Madagascar’s fortunes rested almost entirely on the outcome of the ongoing political struggle, which stemmed from the 2009 overthrow of President Marc Ravalomanana. Andry Rajoelina, president of the High Authority for the Transition, took power with a broad but weak base of support from across opposition parties reflecting the diverse ethnic, geographic, and power spectrums. Yet the country’s governing ethos had changed. Rajoelina had solidified power at a cost. His powerbase was very narrow and his popular support diminished. Factional lines developed almost immediately between the president and Prime Minister Jean Omer Beriziky, appointed in late 2011 as a consensus candidate to gain international recognition. The conflict permeated all of public life, challenged the goal of new elections and further jeopardised the quality of governance. This set the tone for a year marked by political fragmentation but, perhaps surprisingly, international rapprochement and macroeconomic gains. While ever on the brink, the country managed, against all odds, to make progress on the most challenging political, social and economic issues without tempting state failure.
The year 2019 was pivotal in Madagascar as it marked the completion of the second round of elections in the Fourth Republic, a sea change in political leadership, and a new direction in state-led economic growth. President Andry Rajoelina was installed as the new elected president on 17 January. While his victory was decisive, and his long-time foe, Marc Ravalomanana, had already withdrawn his electoral challenges the week before, he inherited a deeply marred political environment and restless electorate. By year’s end, Rajoelina’s party coalition, ‘Isika rehetra miaraka amin’i Andry Rajoelina’ (ird, ‘We are all together with Andry Rajoelina’), had secured an absolute majority in the 27 May legislative elections, the ird candidate had won four of five major urban municipalities and a national majority in the 27 November communal elections, and the opposition was in tatters. The international community rallied behind the one-time autocrat they had shunned a decade ago, offering much-needed donor support for both capital and core sectors, an increase in foreign direct investment, and invitations for state visits. gdp continued to see an increase, but poverty remained intransigent for two-thirds of the population. The powerful private sector was left jockeying for power in the face of new leadership, and President Rajoelina was left yet to determine how much he could rely upon trusted loyalists without casting a broad net for political and economic decision-making.
Under the constitution, new presidential elections must be held either in late 2006 or early 2007. Reflection on Ravalomanana's accomplishments began in earnest even while the genuflection and remonstration intensified. Domestic politics came to dominate as the anti-corruption campaign grew, opposition parties continued to splinter and become more hostile and the first signs of challenge to the president's decentralisation plan emerged. Foreign affairs continued to provide economic protection, but no longer provided a safeguard against public questioning. Socioeconomic challenges rose as the president's privatisation plan faced obstacles and rice and energy prices suffered from volatility. The most worrisome factors were an active, radicalising opposition undermining efforts at democratic consolidation and the uncomfortably close relationship between the president's corporate holdings, his associates and his political position.
Andry Rajoelina, President of the High Authority for the Transition, was in a vastly different position from a year earlier. On the one hand, he was struggling to find new sources of revenue. On the other, he had successfully solidified his hold on power while resisting the compromise sought by international mediation efforts. Prime Minister General Albert Camille Vital, remained a deeply controversial figure in the eyes of opposition parties and the international community, but was pivotal in keeping the military in line and creating new opportunities to profit from Madagascar’s natural resources. The peace negotiations among the four living heads of state – Andry Rajoelina, Marc Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka, and Zafy Albert – had failed and Rajoelina’s new challenges were internal. Yet, for the Malagasy people the situation continued to worsen, with poverty figures skyrocketing and humanitarian initiatives disintegrating.
On 25 January, Hery Martial Rajaonarimampianina was sworn in as Madagascar’s new president. This followed the first election since the overthrow of President Marc Ravalomanana in March 2009 and was a landmark towards normalisation after the country’s isolation from the international community. The private sector had also suffered from a lack of diversified foreign investment. Domestically, established political parties were on the wane and civil society faced near-exclusion from the body politic. Poverty had soared by an estimated 8%, making the country the fourth-poorest in the world according to un estimates. The election was broadly viewed at home and abroad as a ‘trigger’ and a return to constitutionality. The international community returned in force, foreign aid was ramped up, new domestic political space expanded, and the private sector showed signs of growth. Yet the return to electoral legitimacy did not prove to be a panacea. The political fragmentation and associated networks of influence that created the 2009–13 crisis were not resolved and the country remained at risk of a new crisis.
When Andry Rajoelina ousted President Marc Ravalomanana to become president of the High Authority of the Transition (HAT) on 18 March 2009, he subverted the legislature and installed a diverse 44-member constituency from across the political, ethnic and geographic spectrum. The members of the HAT, and particularly ministerial appointments, were experienced politicians who had served in previous administrations or represented critical regional powerbases. By the beginning of 2010, that strategy had already begun to shift and consolidation of power became the name of the game, even as the political conflict continued to dominate Malagasy political and economic spheres. While the president continued a failing dialogue with the three other opposition movements in internationally-sponsored peace talks, the appointment of Colonel Camille Vital as prime minister gained much of the then splintering support of the army under him, while marginalising key constituents in the erstwhile HAT.
The elections of 3 December went off smoothly and President Ravalomanana was re-elected. He embarked on implementing his bold Madagascar Action Plan (MAP), introduced in March. Though Marc Ravalomanana no longer had the lustre at home he once enjoyed, the donor community continues to embrace him. High profile state visits by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and German President Horst Köhler, as well as President Ravalomanana's own official travels indicated his continued international appeal. Nonetheless, Ravalomanana closed the year facing shifting domestic political terrain, stubborn poverty levels and somewhat unstable market conditions marked by economic inequalities and rapid but difficult-to-manage growth in the mining and oil sectors.
A coup d'état was the dominant event that marked the year. The combined impact of the political unrest, the concomitant fragility of the private sector, and the sudden loss of donor funds made for a year of precipitous economic decline. Many institutions, charged with such tasks as protecting natural resources and combating corruption, experienced a diminished capacity to perform their functions. The relative strength of Malagasy technocrats saved Madagascar from state collapse. There was little violence on the streets, but progress with resolving the political conflict was nil. Dwindling foreign exchange reserves raised fears of currency collapse.
The government of president Hery Martial Rajaonarimampianina had limited success in improving the quality of governance, mending years of eroded trust, or rectifying ineffective policies. The sentiment expressed was that he hadn’t lived up to his promises for reform. Former presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina solidified their front-runner standing. gdp per capita increased modestly, but poverty remained at highs reached during the 2009–13 political crisis. Forest area continued to decrease. The powerful private sector began drawing battle lines, and attempted reforms to the electoral code and related policy areas ushered in a new era of uncertainty. Although international interests disagreed on the extent of risk facing the country, imminent constitutional crises were averted, and elections were held with relative calm on 7 November. With the victory of Rajoelina at the 19 December polls, a new opportunity was created to establish stable relationships.
In 2020 Madagascar faced comparatively few Covid-19 cases but significant impacts from the pandemic on both the economy and politics. gdp fell for the first time in over a decade, the current account balance dropped to alarming levels, the value of the currency (the ariary) slipped, manufacturing slowed, agricultural production slowed, and services declined. As a result, social conditions worsened in a country already suffering as one of the poorest in the world, and the government was ill equipped to provide a robust response to famine in the south of the country. The year was positive for President Rajoelina, who made great strides in consolidating power. Having already secured decisive victories for the presidency, in taking control of the national assembly, and in local elections throughout the country, the only remaining opposition space was in the senate. The president received support from the High Constitutional Court (hcc) to reform the senate before winning a decisive victory in the indirect elections on 11 December. The year ended with deep concerns about economic recovery, worsening social conditions, high levels of engagement by international donors, rising concerns about the health risks of Covid-19, a demoralised and highly fractured opposition, and President Rajoelina indisputably at the helm, relying on a small coterie of loyalists.