A rebel attack at the start of the year and later further upheavals triggered widespread reactions, including a military support mission by France and the declaration of a state of emergency in three provinces. Fearing that the massive anti-regime movements in Khartoum (Sudan) could spill over to N’Djamena, President Idriss Déby was extremely vigilant not to allow potential protests and popular assemblies. The regime was both under strong internal pressure and heavily supported from outside. Parliamentary elections, due since 2015, were again postponed and it was finally announced that they would take place in 2020.
President Azali Assoumani consolidated his hold on power by winning a snap presidential election in March. Opposition candidates denounced the authoritarian and restrictive conditions under which the campaign took place. Citing irregularities, an international observer mission declined to validate the conduct of the election. The opposition established a National Transition Council in an effort to have the election nullified. Its first president, Colonel Soilihi Mohamed was arrested and then co-opted. However, with his presidency widely recognised by the international community, Assoumani ignored the Council’s demands that he step down. In April, the islands were hit by Cyclone Kenneth, which caused widespread damage to infrastructure and devastated much of the agricultural sector. The imf coordinated an international relief and rebuilding effort. The World Bank recategorised Comoros as a ‘middle income country’ from its previous categorisation as a ‘least developed country’. At the end of the year, a conference of international investors, hosted by the French government and designed to finance the Emerging Comoros Plan, resulted in pledges of investment amounting to $ 4.3 bn.
For President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has ruled the Republic of Congo for all but five years since 1979, 2019 marked the midpoint of his third presidential term since reclaiming power in 1997. Sassou Nguesso viewed the year as a turning point. His judicial system sentenced a second rival from the 2016 presidential election to 20 years in prison, leaving no major opposition figures to challenge him in the 2021 election. To mitigate the financial crisis that has gripped Congo since 2017, Sassou Nguesso secured debt relief from the imf and the Chinese government, his second financial bailout since 2011. After the military campaign in the Pool region between April and December 2016, Sassou Nguesso signed several military cooperation agreements with Moscow to refurbish existing war matériel and purchase new weapons in the year ahead. Nonetheless, Sassou Nguesso’s position remained tenuous. Existing oil fields were reaching maturity. The non-oil sector remained stagnant. Citizens remained frustrated by the government’s economic mismanagement and sustained human rights abuses.
Electoral politics dominated Côte d’Ivoire’s domestic and international agendas in 2019. With growing uncertainty around the candidacy of incumbent Alassane Ouattara, and a flurry of negotiations among former enemies to unite the political opposition against him, the 2020 presidential elections loomed large over the country throughout the year. Despite these concerns, Côte d’Ivoire continued its economic post-conflict recovery and posted impressive numbers in a range of key indexes. Sustained collaboration with neighbouring Ghana in leveraging influence on the global cocoa market led to some gains in securing minimum buying prices for local producers, and the private sector – primarily through expansions in telecommunications, agribusiness, and construction – passed the agricultural sector as the country’s most productive for the first time since 2015.
The Congolese ‘electoral poker’ went into its final round with yet another unexpected turn regarding the results of the 30 December 2018 presidential and legislative elections. Upon realising that the vote did not allow for his own candidate to be pushed through, the outgoing president, Joseph Kabila, struck a backroom deal with opposition candidate Félix Tshisekedi, in which the latter gained the presidency in exchange for accepting that Kabila’s ‘Front Commun pour le Congo’ (fcc) would claim an overwhelming majority in the national and provincial assemblies and, therewith, also dominate the senate and the nomination of governors. While the first peaceful transition of the drc was therefore flawed, most Congolese and international stakeholders were satisfied with Kabila stepping down and were willing to give the new president a chance to address the country’s urgent problems. However, governance was delayed, as control over Congo’s political, security, and economic institutions had to be negotiated between the two blocs and their respective constituencies. The impact of the transition on the security situation in the country’s west and centre was positive and many armed groups showed willingness to demobilise, but the eastern provinces remained a hotbed of violence amid the world’s second worst Ebola outbreak.
The political situation in Djibouti was stable and president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh continued to rule the country in an authoritarian manner, while quarrels over his succession continued within his extended family without an apparent winner. Relations with Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed were tense due to Djibouti’s alleged involvement in an ethnic conflict in Ethiopia’s Afar region and Abiy’s support for uae-based dp World in its conflict with President Guelleh over a port terminal. No progress was made in the border conflict with Eritrea, and Djibouti competed with Kenya for a seat in the un Security Council. China continued to be the main investor in the country, and several projects, including a gas pipeline connecting Ethiopia and Djibouti, were initiated. The government raised its efforts to become energy self-sufficient and more resilient against droughts and flooding. Poverty and unemployment remained endemic despite economic growth and high levels of foreign investment.
The year began with an unpredictable future for Sudan, where large-scale protests eventually led to the fall of the al-Bashir regime that had ruled the country for nearly three decades. Ethiopia continued to be in the limelight of global attention, not least since its reformist prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. Expectations were high that his administration would succeed in its efforts to lead peace and cooperation initiatives in the region. However, compared with the unexpected developments of the previous year, only small steps were taken towards regional rapprochement and bilateral tensions prevailed, especially across the Horn.
On 3 August, the longest-serving republican ruler in the world, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, marked 40 years in power. He and the dominant ‘Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial’ (pdge) looked to extend their ruthless hold on power by securing imf loans, expanding the country’s hydrocarbons portfolio to offset oilfield declines, and cultivating their regional and non-Western allies. A succession crisis continued to loom, as the president’s two sons, first vice president Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue (Teodorín) and minister of mines and hydrocarbons Gabriel Mbaga Obiang Lima, jostled for control.
One and a half years after Eritrea’s peace agreement with Ethiopia, none of the urgent reforms that were expected by the international community had been tackled: the unlimited duration of the mandatory national service was not reformed; no elections were envisaged; no political prisoners released; and the exodus of the youth continued. By March, Eritrea had unilaterally closed all border crossings with Ethiopia, and the boundary remained un-demarcated. Agreements related to Ethiopia’s use of Eritrea’s main ports, Massawa and Assab, and a trade agreement remained yet to be finalised. In June, the government closed all health facilities run by the Catholic Church after the Catholic bishops had demanded reconciliation and dialogue. The uae and Saudi Arabia continued to run a military base in the port city of Assab, used for its war against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Eritrea’s relations with Sudan improved after the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir in April, and Eritrea’s president Isaias Afewerki interfered strongly in Sudanese affairs. The economic situation remained dire in the absence of development and the presence of increasing debt distress. The eu granted € 200 m for the construction of a road connecting Eritrea and Ethiopia, although the government was known to be using forced labour in its construction companies.
The Kingdom of Eswatini faced numerous challenges including poverty, chronic food insecurity, and hiv/aids. With a population of 1.1 m people, 52% of whom are under the age of 20, Eswatini ranks 139th out of 189 in the 2019 Human Development Index. Despite its status as a lower-middle-income country, 63% of the population live below the national poverty line. Rampant corruption, mismanagement of funds, and challenges in the health sector continued to take place in the country.