Despite an encouraging overall economic outlook and relative political stability, municipal, regional, and senatorial elections in 2023 consolidated a worrying tendency towards the entrenchment and domination of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (rhdp) in Côte d’Ivoire. With a hotly contested 2025 presidential election looming on the horizon, the prospect of incumbent president Alassane Ouattara seeking a fourth consecutive term seemed to be on the cards, already stirring resistance and mobilisation among the divided and increasingly marginalised opposition. With the military take-over in Niger, the Ouattara administration also faced a shifting sub-regional political climate, in which foreign policy relations with Sahelian neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso seemed to deteriorate and little progress was made in the fight against regional jihadist extremism. At the same time, domestic security remained stable as major infrastructure investments were being finalised ahead of the African Cup of Nations football championships, hosted by Côte d’Ivoire for the first time since 1984. The Ivorian cocoa sector was the centre of international attention as unprecedented drops in production drove global selling prices to a record high.
With the holding of the presidential elections, the year was considered to be the final step towards the resolution of the crisis that broke out in September 2002. Planned for early March 2010, the elections were postponed for the seventh time and President Gbagbo confirmed his nickname, the ‘boulanger’, the baker rolling his opponents in flour. Confident, on the basis of favourable opinion polls, that he would win, Gbagbo did not interfere in the final scheduling – and he lost. The two-ballot elections were held on 31 October and 28 November, and Alassane Ouattara clearly defeated Gbagbo with a nearly 10% margin. However, Gbagbo refused to step down, appointed a parallel government and plunged the country in a state of chaos that threatened West Africa’s stability.
The year started in a complete stalemate with two governments and two presidents: the president-elect, Alassane Ouattara, recognised by the international community and trapped in an Abidjan hotel under UN protection, and his defeated but defiant predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo, who had refused to step down and controlled the country’s southern half with the support of the military. This unsustainable situation ended in an open war in Abidjan, the defeat of Gbagbo’s camp in April and the conquest of the whole country by pro-Ouattara troops, followed by a return to legality after eight years of crisis. Then began the long and challenging process of reconciliation, the reconstruction of crumbling infrastructure and the rebuilding of the economy. This gradual normalisation was reinforced by the election of a new parliament in December.
Having secured 204 of the National Assembly’s 255 seats in the 2011 parliamentary elections, President Alassane Ouattara’s ruling coalition, the ‘Rassemblement des Républicains’ – ‘Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire’ (RDR-PDCI) had a free hand to govern the country. Achievements during the year were quite impressive, with faster-than-expected economic recovery following months of fighting that had erupted in the wake of former president Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to accept Ouattara’s 2010 presidential poll victory. Key economic reforms were initiated, donors clearly threw their weight behind Ouattara, and investor confidence rose. However, progress lagged on a host of critical key issues, from justice and political reconciliation to security sector reform, which clearly undermined political stability and put the country at risk. A series of armed raids (nearly every month and sometimes daily), mainly attributed to pro-Gbagbo supporters, targeted the security forces, contributing to an even stronger polarisation of the political landscape and undermining the prospects for national reconciliation.