The August elections defined political dynamics, which were marked by a hardening of the political and social climate. Hotly contested, the elections returned the ruling party and President João Lourenço to power with a narrower-than-ever majority, indicating growing dissatisfaction with and distrust in political institutions and their ability to represent the population’s interests. Foreign affairs largely followed the courant normal, and were dominated by economic rather than political considerations. Post-pandemic, the economy nominally recovered. This was largely due to rebounding oil prices, as oil income still dominated government revenues, yet costs of living remained high and living conditions for a majority of people were dire.
Angola continued to face a triple transition from war to peace, from devastation to reconstruction and from a state/elite patronage system to a transparent market economy. The first two advanced further, with concerns expressed over delays in the third and government's commitment to reform. Key questions, including the date of elections, remained largely unanswered in the year, although the movement into a post-conflict situation under government control continued. Little happened in terms of government's spreading growth beyond the capital-intensive oil sector to create the conditions for labour-intensive poverty-reducing growth and to allow a genuine private sector to develop. Despite rhetoric on increased transparency, accountability and democratisation, little was accomplished to overcome the gap between rulers and ruled. Nor was there much done to address the needs of, or instability in rural areas or shanty towns.
There was little change in the year as the government consolidated its framework for the future, particularly its own continuation in power, and there was little sign of the promised decentralisation. Increasing elite confidence was shown in the cavalier stance on elections, now postponed until 2008 and 2009, six years after the end of the civil war.
The government again used the Angolan political economy to consolidate its power. The presidency continued through its vast patronage network to ensure dominance, despite little improvement in the condition of the people. Angola's massive oil revenues, high oil prices, economic growth, access to Chinese and commercial loans, invulnerability to outside or internal pressure plus good relations with the US continued to afford it a good deal of autonomy. Inflation was the lowest in decades. Angola sought to improve its world standing and overcome its reputation for lack of transparency, corruption and military meddling in neighbouring countries. It sees itself as a regional player between Nigeria and Pretoria/Tshwane. Although Angola became China's biggest oil supplier, relations with Beijing cooled off somewhat.
The first regular elections in 16 years were the most momentous political event of the year and brought about a massive win for the party in power, the MPLA (‘Movimento Popular para a Libertação de Angola’). Since the end of the civil war in 2002, President José Eduardo dos Santos and his entourage have tightened their grip on power and the resources of the country, with very little improvement in the living conditions of the majority of the people. The confirmation of his rule through democratic elections is thus only the last step in the consolidation process of Angola's singular power structure, centred on the presidency and the dominant party, which aims to improve the government's international standing.
The consolidation of the government was only marginally affected by the ongoing debates about the long-outstanding constitutional reform. While presidential elections were scheduled for this year, technical reasons were cited as causing the delay in resolving the constitutional debates, and both the constitutional project and the date of the next presidential election remained unresolved issues. Instead, the ruling elite extended its grip on political and economic power. On 21 September, President José Eduardo dos Santos silently marked his 30 years in power, making him the second-longest-serving head of state in Sub-Saharan Africa. The human rights situation and media freedom improved only marginally, and the low-level guerrilla war in Cabinda simmered on. Although the world economic crisis, and especially the drop in crude oil prices, impacted adversely on economic growth, economic indicators were showing signs of recovery towards the end of the year. Economic and political ties with the most important partner countries were strengthened and in line with the country's growing ambitions as a regional power. Social conditions also improved slightly, but for the vast majority of the population the situation remained difficult.
Angola introduced a new constitution, followed by several cabinet reshuffles, which consolidated the political dominance of the governing party and strengthened the position of the president. The opposition remained fractured and ineffective. 2010 also saw the resurgence of the separatist ‘Frente para a Libertação da Enclave de Cabinda’ (FLEC) rebellion, and the continuation of repressive politics against opposition voices, regime critics and ‘separatists’, not only in Cabinda, but also in the diamond-rich Lunda provinces. President dos Santos’ first state visit to South Africa in December was arguably the high point of the year in foreign relations. Economically, Angola’s oil-dependent economy recovered from the global financial crisis, but was set back by a debt crisis in June that arose over unpaid arrears with construction firms. While the oil-driven economy turned at high speed, and infrastructure and luxury residential construction projects were undertaken and completed, the majority of the population continued to live in poverty and ill health.
The first openly anti-government protests in Luanda and provincial capitals were met with bellicose rhetoric and swift intervention by security forces, showing a certain degree of nervousness on the part of the government. The demonstrations also highlighted the unanswered question of who would succeed President dos Santos, whose dominance of the political system was strongly felt, both among members of the ruling party and by the political and popular opposition. Despite growing popular discontent, opposition parties remained fractured and ineffective. Abroad, Angola emphasised South-South partnerships. The country also consolidated its standing with economic and political initiatives, namely in Guinea-Bissau, although it came under pressure for its stance in the Ivoirian crisis. The economy picked up again after a debt crisis in the previous year, although the majority of the population remained mired in poverty, confined to the informal sector and with low levels of education and health.
The political year was dominated by the 31 August elections. In the run-up to the elections, opposition parties were surprisingly vocal in their criticism of the government, while youth protests faced administrative obstruction and increasingly violent repression. The elections were marked by irregularities and were won by the incumbent president and his party, with a comfortable majority. Abroad, the year was marked by the fiasco of the country’s engagement in Guinea-Bissau and continued dominance over the Portuguese economy; relations with the USA hit a low. Although the economy showed signs of recovery and diversification away from oil, socioeconomic conditions for the vast majority of the population remained dire and 10% of the population were affected by famine.