Eastern Africa (Vol 17, 2020)
in Africa Yearbook OnlineSearch for other papers by Benedikt Kamski in
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(6,790 words)
Encouraging signs of peace and reconciliation were overshadowed by open conflict and a deteriorating security environment across large parts of the sub-region. But not all was dim, for instance, the prospects for Sudan to harness the dividends of the revolution were promising and a new transition government in South Sudan restored hope. The first half of the year was characterised by governments’ uphill battle to halt the spread of the coronavirus and absorb the immediate socioeconomic repercussions of the pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and air transport were hit the hardest. Government revenue dropped and debt increased, along with inflationary pressure, shattering generally hopeful developments of recent years. Overall growth contracted by 4.6% and averaged 0.7%. While the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted public life, affected economic performance, and threatened livelihoods, in addition to that, Eastern Africa experienced intense weather extremes. Floods and landslides affected at least 4 m people in the second half of the year in at least eight countries of the region, as well as bordering eastern drc. Moreover, no end was in sight to the desert locust infestation that had been ravaging especially Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya since the end of 2019. This ‘triple shock’ further weakened food security. Growing numbers of idps and refugees put more pressure on hosting nations such as Sudan, where more than 50,000 people from conflict-ridden northern Ethiopia sought refuge from November onwards. The multi-actor war in Tigray, which besides federal and regional troops reportedly also involved Eritrean forces on Ethiopian soil, threatened stability across the Horn of Africa and could end in a dangerous stalemate. Negotiations between the three riparian states of the Blue Nile over the use of the river’s waters stalled again, while visible progress on upstream dam construction was reported. Elections that were held despite the public health crisis did not bring notable political changes except in Ethiopia, with the unilateral decision of Tigray to go to the polls that triggered the ongoing war. On the contrary, the year saw increased levels of repressive legislation against the media and an increasingly limited space for opposition groups in many countries. Looking ahead, post-pandemic recovery plans will provide an opportunity to initiate deep economic reforms in Eastern Africa. However, economic recovery will be slow, and substantial additional financing, especially from the private sector, will be needed to adapt existing growth models to novel configurations of global value chains.
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Eastern Africa (Vol 17, 2020)
in Africa Yearbook OnlineSearch for other papers by Benedikt Kamski in
Current site
Google Scholar
(6,790 words)