(8,119 words)
Elections continued to be the major driver behind events in the drc during the year. After more than two years of delays, there were serious doubts whether they would finally take place on 23 December. In particular, it remained unclear for most of the year if president Joseph Kabila would violate the Congolese constitution and run for a third term in office or how he would otherwise attempt to retain power. Uncertainty about the president’s intentions heightened anxiety within the political system, including among the presidential majority, directly impacting the security situation. In an increasingly polarised climate, the government continued to weaken potential resistance by dividing the opposition, limiting political freedoms, and exacerbating violent conflicts across the country. State security actors and armed groups continued to prey on the population and increasingly clashed with each other, leading to an intensification of the humanitarian crisis. While most domestic and international observers agreed that the widely unpopular Kabila “had to go”, the opposition was unable to overcome its fragmentation, and international actors failed to show the necessary resolve to alter the regime’s cost-benefit calculus. However, a number of unforeseen developments, such as the surprising release of former vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba by the icc, made this eventful year appear at times like a thrilling chess match in which Kabila seemed to prevail.
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(8,119 words)