(6,250 words)
President Magufuli, in his second year in office, ever more vigorously pursued an authoritarian leadership style that significantly narrowed the previously existing democratic space and curtailed critical public debate. The freedoms of assembly and of expression of opposition voices were frequently restricted by state authorities, political rallies were banned outside of election periods, many opposition politicians were repeatedly arrested, interrogated and intimidated, critical media were closely scrutinised and the state organs showed an increasing intolerance of any dissenting opinion. Despite a noticeable deterioration in the general political climate, the stability of the political system was not under threat and the dominant long-ruling ccm (‘Chama cha Mapinduzi’ / Revolutionary Party) was able to control all spheres of public life and still enjoyed the unwavering support of the majority of the population. Magufuli further consolidated his grip on the ccm, despite continued discontent within party ranks. On the surface, the situation in semi-autonomous Zanzibar remained relatively calm, but the long-standing confrontation between the ccm and the opposition cuf did not vanish. Neighbourly relations with Rwanda and Uganda were strengthened, amid minor disputes with Kenya over trade issues. Relations with Western aid donors became more strained over dissatisfaction with Magufuli’s erratic governance style, while cooperation with China was further intensified. Indicators of macroeconomic performance continued to be good, with a solid 7.1% gdp growth rate, but uncertainty over the government’s strategic orientation of stressing economic nationalism and continuing severe liquidity problems weakened private sector initiatives, raising worries about a looming economic slowdown.
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(6,250 words)