(5,780 words)
The year turned out to bring an inconclusive continuation of the numerous problems long present in the country, but worsened by the economic crisis resulting from the dispute over revenues from the South Sudanese oil fields in 2012. The long-term problems included Sudan’s political leadership, the attitudes of political parties and the continuation of armed conflict in a number of outlying areas, most notably Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur. The significance of these problems, especially as they affected the central regions of the Nile Valley, had been managed in large part by the rapid oil-backed growth of the economy in the early 2000s. However this was curtailed first, to a limited extent, by the global financial crisis of 2008, and then, more directly, by the dispute over oil revenues with South Sudan shortly after the latter seceded from Sudan, which had resulted in the stoppage of oil flows for over a year. The government’s response had been to impose large-scale anti-austerity measures in 2013, which produced wide-scale demonstrations. The government had then put down the protests by force, and in 2014 the security crackdown continued, though with less visible resistance following the repression and resulting deaths of over 200 people in 2013. Politically, it sought to press ahead towards the elections due in April 2015, while trying to take opposition parties with it in a process labelled ‘National Dialogue’. For the opposition parties, the major issue was how far they would engage with the government before the elections (they had boycotted the 2010 elections at the last moment) and how far they could cooperate amongst themselves against the government. For some, there was also the possibility of showing support for the rebel groups, especially the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North (spla-n) fighting in Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Economically, austerity continued with the government regaining only a part of its earlier oil revenues following a deal with South Sudan, while also seeking to win international assistance in its precarious position. This entailed maintaining close relations with the Gulf countries, especially Qatar, and Asia, particularly China. The government also sought more understanding with the imf and the World Bank, although there were few signs of greater sympathy from the usa or Europe, where the hopes of democratic reform raised by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (cpa) of 2005 had been repeatedly dashed.
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(5,780 words)