(5,124 words)
Somalia remained a region of insecurity and crisis, particularly in the south-central area, but the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces, aided later in the year by military contingents from Kenya and Ethiopia active in the border regions, succeeded in pushing back the Islamist al-Shabaab movement, which left Mogadishu in August after military setbacks. Nevertheless, al-Shabaab still continued to intensify terror and hit-and-run attacks. The TFG remained very weak and non-functional and did not offer a substantive alternative political model for south-central Somalia or the rest of the country, but it extended its reach and initiated activities to prepare for the post-transition period. The end of the transitional period was extended by one year to 20 August 2012. Southern Somalia was hit by a major drought, resulting in an emergency situation for hundreds of thousands of people. A major international aid effort averted mass deaths. Somaliland and Puntland were more peaceful and less affected by the drought, but clashed with each other on their border. Al-Shabaab’s retreat and gradual decline did not spell the end of the movement but opened up new possibilities for the country. The emerging momentum was evident in a growing number of high-profile diplomatic visits and more political and economic activities, notably in the urban areas. Migrant and refugee flows remained quite dramatic. Overall stability was not attained, but some hopes for political and economic improvement were apparent.
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(5,124 words)